Metro Phoenix Mid Month of April 2023 Pricing Update and Forecast

Mid Month Pricing Update and Forecast

Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next month.

For the monthly period ending April 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $279.64 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up 2.4% from the $273.05 we now measure for March 15. Our forecast range mid-point was $279.01, so this month we were very accurate, within 0.2%. This is reassuring after the big miss last month-when we far too pessimistic.

On April 15 the pending listings for all areas & types show an average list $/SF of $301.22, up 0.3% from the reading for March 15. Among those pending listings we have 99.3% normal, 0.1% in REOs and 0.5% in pre-foreclosures. This is similar to the last 2 months. We still have very few foreclosures appearing.

Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on May 15 is $281.80, which is 0.8% above the April 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $276.16 to $287.44.