Metro Phoenix Mid Month of January 2023 Pricing Update and Forecast

For the monthly period ending January 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $263.84 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is down 2.7% from the $271.13 we now measure for December 15. Our mid-point forecast range was $266.79, so this month we were again slightly too optimistic. The actual result was roughly 1% below the forecast and in the lower half of our 90% confidence range.

Average price per sq. ft. is at the level we last saw 14 months ago during the middle of November 2021.

On January 15 the pending listings for all areas & types show an average list $/SF of $301.41, down $1 from the reading for December 15. Among those pending listings, we have 99.4% normal, 0.1% in REOs, and 0.5% in pre-foreclosures. The distressed segment of the market remains totally insignificant, and both REOs and pre-foreclosures have fallen since last month.

Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on February 15 is $262.46, which is 0.5% below the January 15 reading. This is a statistically insignificant change. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this midpoint, i.e. in the range $257.21 to $267.71.

This means we are expecting only a small decline in average sales $/SF over the next month. The downward pricing trend is weakening because in many places the supply has dropped and demand improved. Asking prices are now on the rise and it does not take a big leap of imagination to see closed prices following suit during the second quarter.

Source: Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

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