Metro Phoenix Mid Month of May 2023 Pricing Update and Forecast

Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next month.

For the monthly period ending May 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $278.96 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is down 0.7% from the $281.03 we now measure for April 15. Our forecast range mid-point was $281.80, so this month we were less accurate, with prices down a little instead of up a little. However, this monthly average can easily change by 1% or so in a single day and the actual result lay well within our 90% confidence range.

On May 15 the pending listings for all areas & types show an average list $/SF of $301.40, up just 0.06% from the reading for April 15. Among those pending listings, we have 99.3% normal, 0.1% in REOs, and 0.6% in pre-foreclosures. This is similar to the last 3 months. We still have very few foreclosures appearing.

Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on June 15 is $279.13, which is 0.1% above the May 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this midpoint, i.e. in the range of $273.55 to $284.71.

Source: Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

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