Metro Phoenix Mid Month of November 2022 Pricing Update and Forecast

Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved, and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next month.

For the monthly period ending November 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $275.03 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is down 0.1% from the $275.36 we now measure for October 15. Our forecast range midpoint was $280.16, so this month we were again a little too optimistic. The actual result was within 1.5% of the forecast but definitely towards the bottom of our 90% confidence range. We did see higher prices during early November, but these had fizzled out by mid-November.

The average price per sq. ft. is at the level we last saw at the start of February. It is still up 2.7% from the beginning of 2022, but it looks increasingly likely that by the end of the year the market will have lost all the gains it made during the first 5 months.

On November 15 the pending listings for all areas & types show an average list $/SF of $305.90, down 0.4% from the reading for October 15. Among those pending listings, we have 99.4% normal, 0.2% in REOs, and 0.4% in pre-foreclosures. The distressed segment of the market remains insignificant.

Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on December 15 is $273.87, which is 0.4% below the November 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range of $268.39 to $279.35.

This means we are expecting a small decline in average sales $/SF over the next month. The downward pricing trend appears to be persistent, but not very strong.

Source: Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC